Oscars 2026 Final Predictions as ‘Sinners’ Looks to Make History

Variety’s Chief Awards Editor Clayton Davis is giving us his predictions for Sunday's 2026 Oscars, which features tight races in multiple categories.

"The big secret is we don't know who's going to win Best Picture and Director,” he said. "All the signs are pointing towards Paul Thomas Anderson and ‘One Battle After Another.’”

He went on, "But I think mostly we're going to be looking at whether or not Ryan Coogler becomes the first Black director to ever win Best Director at the Oscars.”

He pointed out, “Ninety-eight years, no black person has ever stood on that stage with [that] Oscar in hand. And what better moment to do it than the most nominated film in Oscar history... 16 nominations for ‘Sinners.' I'm predicting a big upset. We might see ‘Sinners do it in both categories.”

As for Best Actress, Davis said, "Best Actress looks like a pretty foregone conclusion. It's Jessie Buckley from Chloé Zhao's ‘Hamnet.’ The Shakespearean drama has swept all the precursors.”

He added, "It's the easiest race to call of the night. Jessie Buckley, first Irish actress to win that category, going to make some history for herself.”

Best Actor isn’t so straight forward. 

Davis explained, "Timothée Chalamet was the early front-runner for 'Marty Supreme.' Some people will point to the recent comments made about ballet and opera. Just to let everyone know, all that came out and went viral after Oscar voting had closed. In many conversations with voters, this has been agreed upon that Timmy is rather young to be winning Best Actor. So, for Timmy, I think they're going to make him wait just a little bit longer.”

What about the supporting categories? Clayton said, "Best Supporting Actor, I'm expecting Delroy Lindo to just push past Sean Penn, who would win a third [Oscar]. But I think it's going to be Delroy Lindo for ‘Sinners.’ And Supporting Actress, tight race between three women, but I think Amy Madigan from ‘Weapons' is going to make some history for a horror movie performance, become the second-oldest winner in history.”

Check out the full list of nominees here!